The advance of India being a international player in the shipping sector may well be just a couple of years away, since the country has the likelihood to morph into secondary “China”, concerning stirring seaborne requirement for items, predominately coal in addition to iron ore, not to mention energy-related products. If one has a deeper look at the most up-to-date country target from the International Energy Agency (IEA), they will observe that India is moving forward onto the main stage of global energy earning top spot with respect to coal ingestion, oil demand expansion and solar PV output. Since one can certainly comprehend it is the initial two that are of particular interest of the international shipping industry, with coal utilization somewhat essential for the dry bulk economy as well as oil demand growth for the tanker trade.
In its most up-to-date weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted that “the grounds for most of this is the speedy development in energy use expected to arise among its 1.3 billion population, something which is usually easy to feed for such incredible growth levels across the next year or two considering that 240 million of them are now living in rural areas without any a source of electricity, despite the fact that at the same time it features one of the highest advancement quantities in brand new vehicle possession. Those two will prove as powerful factors propelling a close to 30% boost in coal plus oil utilization by 2020”.
Allied’s George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, revealed that “coal is India’s major source of energy symbolizing 40% of its energy mix whilst taking its place as third major developer and consumer globally. Seeing that India is expected to keep its coal-cantered energy strategy despite the global “green” pres-sure and taking into account the expanded demand it's going to have for power capacity and electricity generation it will be quite interesting to see exactly where it will turn to serve its requirements provided that at some time it is going to discover its internal production and also reserves insufficient to keep up with its maturing appetite. Which means that even though its effect on seaborne coal trade may well remain capped as it takes on endeavours to enhance its internal production, if its rise in demand keeps on track with what it is now it will not be long before it takes up and holds the lion share in this market. It is also worth mentioning that this year up to now it has currently overtaken Chinese imports taking up 20% of the coal exchange this season, thanks to the smoother desire from the past industry head, namely China”, he noted.
In the mean time, “things however are really different in relation to oil, as India is reliant largely on imports to handle both its consumer and industrial demands. With over 260m voyager cars anticipated to be added to its existing car possession over the next 25 years and with its field set to take a much more notable role in the world stage, anticipations are for an equally positive surge in need for both crude oil along with, if not more so in oil products. The only real down side to this is its prime area, situated substantially nearer to the main Middle Eastern producers then any of the OECD members or China. Which means that the benefiting tonne-miles is going to be a lot fewer, though at the end of the day any boost in high demand is always welcome”, Lazaridis claimed.
So, consider some of the plausible dampeners to such beneficial circumstances? “Well for one you're still up against the risk of policy management which can be brought about by worldwide environmental fears. This is specifically an issue for coal, which might come about through either a demand for India to reduce it reliance or even through other significant consumers moving clear of their reliance on this “dirty fuel”. On the side of oil it appears to be the most significant dampener could be technologies, with present-day developments heading towards more environmentally friendly modes of transport. On the other hand, it appears as if there's still something to keep us optimistic for the future”, Allied’s analyst concluded.
In its most up-to-date weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted that “the grounds for most of this is the speedy development in energy use expected to arise among its 1.3 billion population, something which is usually easy to feed for such incredible growth levels across the next year or two considering that 240 million of them are now living in rural areas without any a source of electricity, despite the fact that at the same time it features one of the highest advancement quantities in brand new vehicle possession. Those two will prove as powerful factors propelling a close to 30% boost in coal plus oil utilization by 2020”.
Allied’s George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, revealed that “coal is India’s major source of energy symbolizing 40% of its energy mix whilst taking its place as third major developer and consumer globally. Seeing that India is expected to keep its coal-cantered energy strategy despite the global “green” pres-sure and taking into account the expanded demand it's going to have for power capacity and electricity generation it will be quite interesting to see exactly where it will turn to serve its requirements provided that at some time it is going to discover its internal production and also reserves insufficient to keep up with its maturing appetite. Which means that even though its effect on seaborne coal trade may well remain capped as it takes on endeavours to enhance its internal production, if its rise in demand keeps on track with what it is now it will not be long before it takes up and holds the lion share in this market. It is also worth mentioning that this year up to now it has currently overtaken Chinese imports taking up 20% of the coal exchange this season, thanks to the smoother desire from the past industry head, namely China”, he noted.
In the mean time, “things however are really different in relation to oil, as India is reliant largely on imports to handle both its consumer and industrial demands. With over 260m voyager cars anticipated to be added to its existing car possession over the next 25 years and with its field set to take a much more notable role in the world stage, anticipations are for an equally positive surge in need for both crude oil along with, if not more so in oil products. The only real down side to this is its prime area, situated substantially nearer to the main Middle Eastern producers then any of the OECD members or China. Which means that the benefiting tonne-miles is going to be a lot fewer, though at the end of the day any boost in high demand is always welcome”, Lazaridis claimed.
So, consider some of the plausible dampeners to such beneficial circumstances? “Well for one you're still up against the risk of policy management which can be brought about by worldwide environmental fears. This is specifically an issue for coal, which might come about through either a demand for India to reduce it reliance or even through other significant consumers moving clear of their reliance on this “dirty fuel”. On the side of oil it appears to be the most significant dampener could be technologies, with present-day developments heading towards more environmentally friendly modes of transport. On the other hand, it appears as if there's still something to keep us optimistic for the future”, Allied’s analyst concluded.